Nationwide opinion polls released this week indicate that the CDU/CSU alliance – known locally as the Union – has sunk below the 20% threshold, a historic low for the party that has dominated German politics for decades. At the same time, the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is reported to have reached around 30% support, according to separate data cited by German outlet WELT and Turkey‑based broadcaster TRT World. The twin developments have been described as a "shock" for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose government approval has also plummeted to a new low.
Polling Collapse for the Union
The Union, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has been the backbone of Germany’s centre‑right bloc since the post‑war era. It currently heads a coalition government with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), with Friedrich Merz serving as Chancellor after succeeding Angela Merkel as party leader in 2022. The latest surveys, reported by WELT, show the Union slipping to just under 20% in multiple nationwide polls – a level not seen since the early 1990s.
Merz’s personal approval rating has likewise deteriorated, with the same polling data indicating that confidence in his leadership is at a record low for his tenure. Analysts note that the combination of a weak party brand and a Chancellor struggling to command public trust could jeopardise the stability of the current coalition, especially as Germany approaches its next federal election, scheduled for 2025.
Rise of the Far‑Right AfD
In contrast, the AfD – a right‑wing populist party founded in 2013 – is reported by TRT World to have surged to approximately 30% support nationwide. The broadcaster attributes the rise to growing public discontent with the Union’s handling of economic challenges, immigration, and perceived elite detachment. The same source notes that Merz’s government approval has hit a “new low,” underscoring a broader erosion of confidence in the establishment parties.
Political scientists quoted by TRT World warn that a 30% rating for the AfD could translate into a significant parliamentary presence, potentially forcing mainstream parties to confront the far‑right on policy issues ranging from security to the European Union. The surge also raises questions about the viability of a coalition that excludes the AfD, given Germany’s mixed‑member proportional representation system.
"Umfrage‑Schock für Kanzler Merz – Union stürzt in mehreren Umfragen bundesweit unter 20 Prozent," WELT reported, highlighting the unprecedented dip in the Union’s support.
Both outlets agree that the decline is not limited to a single region; the Union’s slump is evident across the country, from the industrial Ruhr area to the affluent south. While the reports do not provide exact figures for other parties, they suggest that the SPD and Greens are holding their ground, albeit without the surge needed to offset the Union’s losses.
The mounting pressure on Merz has already prompted internal discussions within the CDU/CSU about strategic recalibrations, including potential policy shifts and leadership reassessments. Critics within the party argue that a more decisive stance on economic reform and immigration may be required to stem the tide of voter attrition.
With the Union’s popularity now below 20% and the AfD approaching a third of the electorate, Germany’s political landscape appears poised for a significant realignment. How Chancellor Merz responds to the twin challenges of rebuilding his party’s credibility and containing the far‑right’s ascent will likely shape the nation’s direction in the coming years.
