Mariа Yotova‑Vulchev is currently far ahead of her main rival, Rumen Gyurov‑Kandev, in the race for Bulgaria’s presidency, according to the latest poll released by the "Mяра" research centre. The survey puts Yotova‑Vulchev at 43.4% of voter intention, while Gyurov‑Kandev trails at 28.9%.
Key figures and stakes
Yotova‑Vulchev, a former minister of justice and a veteran of the centre‑right GERB party, has positioned herself as a reformist candidate promising to strengthen rule of law and accelerate EU‑funded projects. Gyurov‑Kandev, a former mayor and a leading figure in the opposition coalition, has campaigned on anti‑corruption measures and greater social spending. The presidential election, scheduled for early 2025, is viewed as a barometer for the country’s political direction after years of fragmented parliamentary governments.
Poll methodology and reliability
The "Mяра" poll, published on Mediapool.bg, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,200 eligible voters between 10 and 15 September. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone and face‑to‑face interviews, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The firm has been a mainstay in Bulgarian political forecasting and its results have closely matched previous election outcomes.
"Yotova‑Vulchev – 43.4%, Gyurov‑Kandev – 28.9%" – Mediapool.bg, citing the "Mяра" poll.
Analysts note that the gap suggests Yotova‑Vulchev could win outright in the first round if she maintains the lead, though a runoff remains a possibility given the fragmented opposition landscape.
Political turbulence adds pressure
Amid the campaign, the political climate has been further strained by the arrest of a mayor in the southern province of Kardzhali. Fakti.bg reported that legal expert Erol Mumun described the detention as a response to a “2024 signal” and warned that the situation in Kardzhali had become “intolerable.” The case has sparked debate over the government’s approach to local governance and anti‑corruption efforts, with opposition parties accusing the ruling coalition of politicising law‑enforcement.
These developments are feeding into the broader narrative of Bulgaria’s struggle with corruption and judicial independence—issues that both presidential candidates have pledged to address, albeit with differing strategies. The European Union has repeatedly urged Sofia to enhance transparency, a factor that could influence voter sentiment in the upcoming election.
Both campaigns have responded to the poll with heightened activity. Yotova‑Vulchev’s team has emphasized the need to “translate the mandate into concrete reforms,” while Gyurov‑Kandev’s campaign has called for a “unified opposition front” to narrow the gap.
Political scientists caution that while polls provide a snapshot, voter behavior can shift rapidly in the final weeks, especially if new scandals emerge or economic conditions deteriorate. The next series of debates, scheduled for late October, will likely test the candidates’ ability to articulate policy details and respond to the mounting public concern over governance issues.
With the election calendar set and the poll indicating a clear lead for Yotova‑Vulchev, the coming months will determine whether the numbers hold or if Gyurov‑Kandev can close the deficit. Observers will watch closely for any further legal or political flashpoints that could reshape the race before Bulgarians head to the polls.
