Aryeh Deri, leader of the Shas party, issued a singular ultimatum in an interview with the Haredi news outlet Kikar HaShabbat on October 14, 2026. Unless the military service status of yeshiva students is secured through legislation, Shas will neither join any future government nor provide support from the outside.1 Two days earlier, Yaakov Asher, head of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, offered a more succinct pledge: "We will not join a government that does not genuinely pass this law. Period."1

Israel heads to the polls on October 27. Recent polling indicates the two ultra-Orthodox parties will control 15 of the 120 Knesset seats, and neither the governing bloc nor the opposition is currently projected to reach the 61-seat threshold required for a majority. As the Haredi population now constitutes 14 percent of the country, these parties once again find themselves in the position of kingmakers.

How did the military service exemption grow from 400 students to 63,000?

The exemption policy originated during the War of Independence in 1948, when Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion granted a request from the Agudat Yisrael party to exempt 400 young men studying full-time at yeshivas.2 The justification was the need to rebuild the European yeshivas destroyed during the Holocaust. Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Halevi Herzog had written to Ben-Gurion that winter, noting that tens of thousands of students had been killed and requesting that the survivors be spared from military service.3

In 1967, the Ministry of Defense capped the annual quota at 800 students.2 The turning point arrived in 1977, when Likud won the elections for the first time. The coalition formed by Menahem Begin held 62 seats, and a majority was impossible without the four seats held by Agudat Yisrael.4 Under the terms of the coalition agreement, the quota was abolished, and those who later returned to religious life also gained the right to deferment. New deferments subsequently rose from 900 to 1,400 annually during the first Likud term.5

By 2024, the High Court of Justice reported that the number of Haredi men under exemption had reached approximately 63,000.6

How does the electoral system amplify the power of smaller parties?

Israel utilizes a proportional representation system based on a single national list. Parties that surpass the 3.25 percent electoral threshold receive Knesset seats in proportion to their vote share, and 61 seats are required to form a government. To date, no single party has ever achieved an outright majority.

The two Haredi parties represent distinct communities. Shas was founded in 1984 by the former Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and caters to Jews of Middle Eastern and North African descent. It won four seats in its first election and reached its peak of 17 seats in 1999.7 UTJ is a joint list for two Ashkenazi parties: the Hasidic Agudat Yisrael and the Lithuanian-tradition Degel HaTora. Major decisions for both parties are determined by councils of rabbis, such as the Council of Torah Sages for Shas.7

According to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), the combined vote share of these two parties rose from 8.2 percent in 1992 to 14.1 percent in 2022.8 In the November 1, 2022, election, Shas won 11 seats and UTJ won seven. Of the 64 seats in Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, 18 belonged to these two parties; without them, the coalition would have stalled at 46 seats.

What is the growth trajectory of the Haredi community?

According to the tenth annual report published by the IDI in 2026, the Haredi population reached approximately 1.45 million in 2025, accounting for 14.3 percent of the national population. The community is growing at an annual rate of approximately 4.2 percent, which the report identifies as the fastest growth rate among developed nations. With an average of 6.5 births per woman compared to 2.2 among non-Haredi Jewish women, 57 percent of the Haredi population is under the age of 20. The Central Bureau of Statistics projects that the group will constitute 16 percent of the population by 2030.8

Notes and Sources

  1. Karmel, A. (October 14, 2026). "Deri says Shas, like UTJ, won't join next government without a draft exemption law". The Times of Israel.
  2. Israel Democracy Institute. "Development of the Haredi Exemption Law" (timeline, 1948-2024).
  3. Ellenson, D. (2018). "The Supreme Court, Yeshiva Students, and Military Conscription: Judicial Review, the Grunis Dissent, and its Implications for Israeli Democracy and Law". Israel Studies, 23(3).
  4. Feitelson, D. (May 12, 2019). "Mahapah: 1977 signaled the beginning of the academic decline of the Haredim". TheMarker.
  5. Ilan, S. (1999). Draft Deferment for Yeshiva Students: A Policy Proposal. Jerusalem: Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies, publication no. 4/10e.
  6. Sharon, J. (June 25, 2024). "In historic ruling, High Court says government must draft Haredi men into IDF". The Times of Israel.
  7. Israel Democracy Institute. "Shas" (party profile and 1984-2022 election results).
  8. Malach, G. and Cahaner, L. (2026). Annual Statistical Report on Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Society in Israel 2025. Jerusalem: Israel Democracy Institute.
  9. "Haredi faction quits Netanyahu-led Israeli gov't, coalition" (July 15, 2025). The Jerusalem Post.
  10. "Shas bolts gov't for failing to enshrine Haredi non-enlistment in law, remains part of PM's coalition" (July 16, 2025). The Times of Israel.
  11. "Final polls before election show both blocs short of majority, small parties out of Knesset" (October 23, 2026). The Times of Israel. Channel 12 poll: Midgam, 1,018 respondents, 4.4% margin of error.
  12. "Israeli election: Haredi parties may refuse to endorse both Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot" (October 2026). The Jerusalem Post.